BubblefrownI track new listings everyday because I am a sad and lonely man.  I track closed sales everyday because I tend to be a bitter voyeur.  I can’t make heads nor tails out of our market right now.  The WTF listing prices are resulting in WTF sale prices.  I know it is all different this time, but are we bubbling?

 

The very best source of real estate data that I know of is Mitch Argon (superhero name!) at CalNeva Realty.  Go to his site to sign up for his quarterly reports, and check out what a really good realtor web site looks like.  His latest report included the following graphic:

Bubble Chart - Reno-Sparks-page-0I tend to use 3% annual (.75% quarterly) appreciation instead of 4% as shown, which would already push us into “overvalued” territory.  I don’t see the upward median trend line stopping – not when Midtown shacks are going over $300K, Highwood condos that were $25K a year ago are at $88K, and Somersett SSBs are selling at mid 2005 prices.

So get ready to ride the roller coast again.

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